Russian Invasion of Ukraine

A few readers have reached out by email and said they would appreciate my take on the Ukraine-Russia situation. Cool. So here's a spanking blogger's take for what it's worth.

I did a previous blog post on Jan. 24 about Ukraine before Russia invaded. It provides some good historical perspective: Russia and the Ukraine. I'll recap briefly.

Originally Ukraine was part of the Russian Empire. The first part, East of the Dnieper River, was taken in the 17th century. The part West of the Dnieper in the 18th century during the reign of Catherine the Great.

After the Bolshevik Revolution in the early 20th century, an independently administered territory within the Soviet Union called Ukraine was created by Lenin and added onto by Stalin and Khrushchev. Brezhnev was born in Ukraine. Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine were the founding member-states of the Soviet Union. It was all controlled centrally from Moscow, but men from all three participated in leadership positions.

When the Soviet Union was dissolved in the early 1990s, former Soviet-controlled states became first-class countries, and Germany was reunified. Being the foundation of the old Soviet Union, Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine were still all tightly aligned with one another.

Over time, a split developed in Ukraine, with the West of the country wanting greater alignment with the West, and the East of the country being satisfied by greater alignment with Russia. Below was the electoral map showing the pro-EU and pro-Russian split during the 2010 presidential election, with Tymoshenko being the pro-EU, pro-NATO candidate, and Yanukovych being the pro-Russian candidate.

However, while Yanukovych won the presidential election, parliament had a pro-EU majority. They put forward legislation to cement closer ties to the EU and NATO, and Yanukovych rejected it (President has veto power). This began what became known as the Maidan uprising which turned into violent protests as both sides escalated. Yanukovych was particularly brutal in putting down the revolts, which only made them grow and intensify. The end result was that the duly elected President was forced to flee the country and the pro-EU side took over the country by force. I'm sorry if that disturbs you, but those were the facts.

Mind you, elections in Ukraine have always been rather suspect (both sides) as it was a CIA/SVR playground with made-up scandals and all manner of skullduggery. But the population was for sure very split with ethnic Russians and ethnic Ukrainians, and Russian-speaking versus Ukranian-speaking divides. The pro-EU side did not help its cause by taking away certain guaranteed Russian-language rights that created big problems, especially in Crimea and the Donbas, the most heavily Russian areas.

Here is former US Congresswoman and Democrat Presidential candidate Tulsi Gabbard on Ukraine and the supposed current Democratic leader:

After the takeover, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko signed a constitutional amendment committing the country to becoming a member of NATO and the European Union, which was highly, highly provocative to Russia.

As a reaction to the pro-EU, pro-NATO side taking over by force, in 2014 Russia annexed the Crimea which contained its most strategic naval base, was the most heavily Russian part of Ukraine, was joined into Ukraine the latest, and in fact was leased by Russia from the Ukraine. There was no need for an invasion, just a declaration, as it was already Russian for all intents and purposes. Ukraine and the West essentially let that one go.

Russian-separatists also declared independence from Ukraine of the Donbas region, fearing anti-Russian sentiment in Ukraine. The separatists were backed by Russia, but Ukraine fought to keep the region, supported by Europe and the US. That situation has persisted to the present.

Ever since the Soviet Union fell apart, Russia has been very clear that any advances of NATO eastwards would be seen as a direct threat. There were many promises made to Russia that this would not happen, but NATO kept pushing East regardless.

While it is true that Latvia and Estonia border Russia and were NATO countries since 2004, a quick glance at the map shows that it's nothing like the same threat to Russia as would be Ukraine joining NATO. Of course, Russia protested vehemently their membership at the time, but Russia did not invade.

In 2008, the West tried the same trick in Georgia, but this time Russia went to war to successfully prevent that country from joining NATO. It was a very similar situation as in Ukraine.

My take on the matter is that it has been foolishly, foolishly provocative of the West to not make it off-limits Ukraine joining NATO (in fact, the West has been provocatively encouraging the opposite). Most high-level diplomats and analysts would agree with that sentiment.

Do I believe Russia is therefore justified in invading Ukraine? No. But at the same time the West backed them into a corner. Russia has repeatedly made clear, by words and deeds, the results of pushing for Ukraine's entry into NATO. If Russia ever senses it's about to happen, which they now, justly, have, the result was always inevitable and was completely predictable and predicted.

If you are a threatening looking person with a gun in your hand (NATO), and you step closer and closer to a giant known bully with a crazy look in their eyes (Russia), and who have a track record of punching people who step too close (Georgia, Crimea, Donbas), and the crazy man is telling you to stay back, not cross this line, and yet you keep stepping closer, with your gun drawn, until you are nose to nose, is that person justified in punching you? No. But why THE FUCK were you doing that in the first place???

There are a few potential outcomes. The worst is all out nuclear war or serious cyber warfare with the West. What Russia is likely aiming for is a partition of Ukraine into a neutral Russian puppet state (like Belarus), call it East Ukraine, east of the Dnieper encompassing Crimea and Donbas; and then a separate West Ukraine that would be free to join the EU and maybe NATO as well.

What's needed now is diplomacy and a face-saving outcome for all concerned. And ideally one that does not push Russia into China's arms.